I know that we teach decision analysis in some of our
courses in our policy school at USC, and perhaps ideas like Black-Scholes. But in thinking about a lecture
in my defense policy course, where uncertainty and consequences are high and
costs are constrained, I realized that the general idea of finance and more
concretely, real options, would be useful to convey to our students, undergrads
and masters, more generally. In an econ course, two weeks could be devoted to
finance ideas (namely, volatility and random walks, options, no-arbitrage). And
in public policy courses or real estate development, the notions of an option
must already be conveyed, at least implicitly. I see that Richard deNeufville and David Geltner
of MIT and Yongheng Deng of Singapore recently gave a paper at a real options
conference on real estate design and development planning
I may well be years behind in what we teach. So please
excuse this back-seat-driving.
-------People have written me that the math and formulas may be too difficult for many students. I am not concerned about that. The basic ideas are straightforward, and you could always make a decision tree with a few branchings. The difference from most decision analysis is that you pay now for the chance to make a choice later, and you don't have to know which choice you will make until then.
-------People have written me that the math and formulas may be too difficult for many students. I am not concerned about that. The basic ideas are straightforward, and you could always make a decision tree with a few branchings. The difference from most decision analysis is that you pay now for the chance to make a choice later, and you don't have to know which choice you will make until then.
No comments:
Post a Comment